a little bit of everything

One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors. -- Plato

Sunday, March 05, 2006

Academy Awards

My award show has a first name, it's O-S-C-A-R... Sorry about that I couldn't resist.

This blog isn't the only thing being neglected, so are the movies. I'm embarrassed by how few Oscar movies I've seen this year. Last year, amazingly enough, my sister and I managed to see every movie nominated in the 8 major categories; this year I think I can count on one hand how many Oscar flicks I've seen. I figured it'd be pretty difficult to duplicate last year's movie-going feat but I didn't expect to fall so short. I guess if you're going to fall short might as well fall really short.

Despite the fact that I haven't seen many of the nominated films I'm going to make some semi-educated predictions about the awards.

Best Picture:
Brokeback Mountain seems to have this award locked up, it's been winning awards like crazy and I don't see it stopping tonight. Crash is a wonderful movie that could possibly slip through but I doubt it. I'm betting on Brokeback.

Best Director:
Who is greatly responsible for making a best picture? That would be the director so count on Ang Lee, director of Brokeback Mountain, snagging this prize.

Best Actor:
As a movie fan I love seeing great movies with outstanding performances, but come awards season it gets a little bittersweet. Why? Because you have more than one actor who gave the performance of a lifetime and only one will win. Both Heath Ledger and Philip Seymour Hoffman gave "really really ridiculously good" (can anyone name the movie this quote comes from?) performances in Brokeback Mountain and Capote respectively. It's not fair but only one of them can win, and it will probably be Hoffman. He's been racking up the awards and this should be no different.

Best Actress:
Here we go again. Reese Witherspoon from Walk the Line and Felicity Huffman of Transamerica are the two front runners, deservedly so. Both incredible performances by great actors whose abilities have been overlooked for too long. So who will win? Hell if I know! My heart goes with Felicity who I've loved since the Sports Night days. But will they award a TV actor an Oscar? There are still many snobby Academy members out there who may think she's not worthy of the award. I think Reese has a slight edge here and I wouldn't be disappointed if she won.

Best Supporting Actor:
Paul Giamatti has a couple things going for him, he was completely snubbed last year for his amazing work in Sideways, and he really was good in Cinderella Man. He's taken home a majority of the previous awards and has a pretty big edge going into the Oscars. But...The Academy nominated George Clooney, the handsomest man in the world, in 3 different categories this year. It's highly unlikely that he'll win either the directing or screenplay awards and if the voters don't want him to go home empty handed they may award him here. Let's just hope they haven't seen Batman and Robin lately. Also...Jake Gyllenhaal, future father of my children, or Matt Dillon, let's do it for Johnny, could sneak in if Giamatti and Clooney split most of the votes. I love all these guys and would be happy if any of them wins but I think Giamatti has a slight edge.

Best Supporting Actress:
If I were to rank the five nominees Rachel Weisz would be at the bottom of my list, but that doesn't really matter much seeing as she's probably going to take home this award. I'm guessing if she wins the Oscar she's not really going to care that I like the other 4 actors better than her. It'd be great if Brokeback could win at least one acting award and Michelle Williams has erased all memories of Dawson's Creek with her role in this film. Not only was Catherine Keener great in Capote but she scored big laughs this past summer in 40-Year Old Virgin. And let's not forget Amy Adams who stole the spotlight in Junebug. If the Academy resorts back to their old ways of awarding young up-and-coming actors in this category Adams will runaway with it.

There you have it my semi-educated Oscar predictions. Who knows how it will all turn out? The one thing we can count on is a damn funny show with John Stewart hosting.


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